Examining the environmental risk factors of progressive-onset and relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis: recruitment challenges, potential bias, and statistical strategies.

It is unknown whether the currently known risk factors of multiple sclerosis reflect the etiology of progressive-onset multiple sclerosis (POMS) as observational studies rarely included analysis by type of onset. We designed a case-control study to examine associations between environmental factors and POMS and compared effect sizes to relapse-onset MS (ROMS), which will offer insights into the etiology of POMS and potentially contribute to prevention and intervention practice. This study utilizes data from the Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (PPMS) Study and the Australian Multi-center Study of Environment and Immune Function (the AusImmune Study). This report outlines the conduct of the PPMS Study, whether the POMS sample is representative, and the planned analysis methods. The study includes 155 POMS, 204 ROMS, and 558 controls. The distributions of the POMS were largely similar to Australian POMS patients in the MSBase Study, with 54.8% female, 85.8% POMS born before 1970, mean age of onset of 41.44 ± 8.38 years old, and 67.1% living between 28.9 and 39.4° S. The POMS were representative of the Australian POMS population. There are some differences between POMS and ROMS/controls (mean age at interview: POMS 55 years vs. controls 40 years; sex: POMS 53% female vs. controls 78% female; location of residence: 14.3% of POMS at a latitude ≤ 28.9°S vs. 32.8% in controls), which will be taken into account in the analysis. We discuss the methodological issues considered in the study design, including prevalence-incidence bias, cohort effects, interview bias and recall bias, and present strategies to account for it. Associations between exposures of interest and POMS/ROMS will be presented in subsequent publications.

Single-cell multi-omics analysis of COVID-19 patients with pre-existing autoimmune diseases shows aberrant immune responses to infection.

In COVID-19, hyperinflammatory and dysregulated immune responses contribute to severity. Patients with pre-existing autoimmune conditions can therefore be at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and/or associated sequelae, yet SARS-CoV-2 infection in this group has been little studied. Here, we performed single-cell analysis of peripheral blood mononuclear cells from patients with three major autoimmune diseases (rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, or multiple sclerosis) during SARS-CoV-2 infection. We observed compositional differences between the autoimmune disease groups coupled with altered patterns of gene expression, transcription factor activity, and cell-cell communication that substantially shape the immune response under SARS-CoV-2 infection. While enrichment of HLA-DRlow CD14+ monocytes was observed in all three autoimmune disease groups, type-I interferon signaling as well as inflammatory T cell and monocyte responses varied widely between the three groups of patients. Our results reveal disturbed immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 in patients with pre-existing autoimmunity, highlighting important considerations for disease treatment and follow-up.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis under Disease-Modifying Therapies: A Multi-Centre Study.

BACKGROUND: The EMCOVID project conducted a multi-centre cohort study to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on patients with Multiple Sclerosis (pwMS) receiving disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). The study aimed to evaluate the seroprevalence and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in MS patients enrolled in the EMCOVID database. The DMTs were used to manage MS by reducing relapses, lesion accumulation, and disability progression. However, concerns arose regarding the susceptibility of pwMS to COVID-19 due to potential interactions between SARS-CoV-2 and the immune system, as well as the immunomodulatory effects of DMTs. METHODS: This prospective observational study utilized data from a Multiple Sclerosis and COVID-19 (EMCOVID-19) study. Demographic characteristics, MS history, laboratory data, SARS-CoV-2 serology, and symptoms of COVID-19 were extracted for pwMS receiving any type of DMT. The relationship between demographics, MS phenotype, DMTs, and COVID-19 was evaluated. The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies over a 6-month period was also assessed. RESULTS: The study included 709 pwMS, with 376 patients providing samples at the 6-month follow-up visit. The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was higher among pwMS than the general population, with Interferon treatment being significantly associated with greater seroprevalence (16.9% vs. 8.4%; p 0.003). However, no other specific DMT showed a significant association with antibody presence. A total of 32 patients (8.5%) tested positive for IgG, IgM, or IgA antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 at baseline, but then tested negative at 6 months. Most of the pwMS in the cohort were asymptomatic for COVID-19 and, even among symptomatic cases, the prognosis was generally favourable. CONCLUSION: pwMS undergoing DMTs exhibited a higher seroprevalence of COVID-19 than the general population. Interferon treatment was associated with a higher seroprevalence, suggesting a more robust humoral response. This study provides valuable insights into the seroprevalence and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in pwMS and contributes to our understanding of the impact of COVID-19 amongst this population.

Treatment of older patients with multiple sclerosis: Results of an International Delphi Survey.

Background: People over age 50-55 have historically been excluded from randomized clinical trials for multiple sclerosis (MS). However, more than half of those living with an MS diagnosis are over 55. Objective: Explore the unique considerations of treating older people with MS (PwMS) using an iterative and structured Delphi-based assessment to gather expert opinions. Methods: Eight MS neurologists with an interest in older PwMS developed a 2-round survey. Survey respondents were qualified neurologists with ≥3 years' experience, personally responsible for treatment decisions, and treating ≥20 patients per month, of whom ≥10% were ≥50 years old. Consensus was defined as ≥75% agreement on questions with categorical responses or as a mean score ≥4 on questions with numerical responses. Results: In Survey 1, 224 neurologists responded; 180 of these completed Survey 2. Limited consensus was reached with varying levels of agreement on several topics including identification and assessment of older patients; factors relating to treatment decisions including immunosenescence and comorbidities; considerations for high-efficacy treatments; de-escalation or discontinuation of treatment; effects of COVID-19; and unmet needs for treating this population. Conclusion: The results of this Delphi process highlight the need for targeted studies to create guidance for the care of older PwMS.

Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis after early worsening of disability.

BACKGROUND: Whether progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) heralds earlier onset of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and more rapid accumulation of disability during SPMS remains to be determined. We investigated the association between early PIRA, relapse-associated worsening (RAW) of disability and time to SPMS, subsequent disability progression and their response to therapy. METHODS: This observational cohort study included patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) from the MSBase international registry across 146 centres and 39 countries. Associations between the number of PIRA and RAW during early multiple sclerosis (MS) (the initial 5 years of MS onset) were analysed with respect to: time to SPMS using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for disease characteristics; and disability progression during SPMS, calculated as the change of Multiple Sclerosis Severity Scores over time, using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS: 10 692 patients met the inclusion criteria: 3125 (29%) were men and the mean MS onset age was 32.2 years. A higher number of early PIRA (HR=1.50, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.76, p<0.001) and RAW (HR=2.53, 95% CI 2.25 to 2.85, p<0.001) signalled a higher risk of SPMS. A higher proportion of early disease-modifying therapy exposure (per 10%) reduced the effect of early RAW (HR=0.94, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.00, p=0.041) but not PIRA (HR=0.97, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.05, p=0.49) on SPMS risk. No association between early PIRA/RAW and disability progression during SPMS was found. CONCLUSIONS: Early disability increase during RRMS is associated with a greater risk of SPMS but not the rate of disability progression during SPMS. The deterioration associated with early relapses represents a potentially treatable risk factor of SPMS. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12605000455662).

Epstein-Barr Virus and Multiple Sclerosis: A Convoluted Interaction and the Opportunity to Unravel Predictive Biomarkers.

Since the early 1980s, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection has been described as one of the main risk factors for developing multiple sclerosis (MS), and recently, new epidemiological evidence has reinforced this premise. EBV seroconversion precedes almost 99% of the new cases of MS and likely predates the first clinical symptoms. The molecular mechanisms of this association are complex and may involve different immunological routes, perhaps all running in parallel (i.e., molecular mimicry, the bystander damage theory, abnormal cytokine networks, and coinfection of EBV with retroviruses, among others). However, despite the large amount of evidence available on these topics, the ultimate role of EBV in the pathogenesis of MS is not fully understood. For instance, it is unclear why after EBV infection some individuals develop MS while others evolve to lymphoproliferative disorders or systemic autoimmune diseases. In this regard, recent studies suggest that the virus may exert epigenetic control over MS susceptibility genes by means of specific virulence factors. Such genetic manipulation has been described in virally-infected memory B cells from patients with MS and are thought to be the main source of autoreactive immune responses. Yet, the role of EBV infection in the natural history of MS and in the initiation of neurodegeneration is even less clear. In this narrative review, we will discuss the available evidence on these topics and the possibility of harnessing such immunological alterations to uncover predictive biomarkers for the onset of MS and perhaps facilitate prognostication of the clinical course.

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS. METHODS: We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS. RESULTS: Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

Comparative effectiveness in multiple sclerosis: A methodological comparison.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Early non-disabling relapses are important predictors of disability accumulation in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. METHODS: We redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. RESULTS: People who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions.

Variability of the response to immunotherapy among subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics. RESULTS: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity. CONCLUSIONS: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

Personalized Diagnosis and Therapy for Multiple Sclerosis.

This Special Issue, entitled "Personalized Diagnosis and Therapy for Multiple Sclerosis" encompasses eight publications that we consider relevant, because their reading will help the clinician working regularly with people who suffer from multiple sclerosis (MS) [...].

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in a Cohort of Patients with Multiple Sclerosis under Disease-Modifying Therapies.

Background: Disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) used to treat multiple sclerosis (MS) alter the immune system and therefore increase the risk of infection. There is growing concern about the impact of COVID-19 on patients with MS (pwMS), especially those treated with DMTs. Methods: This is a single-center prospective observational study based on data from the Esclerosis Múltiple y COVID-19 (EMCOVID-19) study. Demographic characteristics, MS history, laboratory data and SARS-CoV-2 serology, and symptoms of COVID-19 in pwMS treated with any DTM were extracted. The relationship among demographics, MS status, DMT, and COVID-19 was evaluated. Results: A total of 259 pwMS were included. The administration of interferon was significantly associated with the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (26.4% vs. 10.7%, p = 0.006). Although patients taking interferon were significantly older (49.1 vs. 43.5, p = 0.003), the association of interferon with the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was still significant in the multivariate analysis (OR 2.99 (1.38; 6.36), p = 0.006). Conclusions: According to our data, pwMS present a higher risk of COVID-19 infection compared with results obtained from the general population. There is no evidence of a worse COVID-19 outcome in pwMS. DMTs did not significantly change the frequency of COVID-19, except for interferon; however, these findings must be interpreted with caution given the small sample of pwMS taking each DMT.

Association of Latitude and Exposure to Ultraviolet B Radiation With Severity of Multiple Sclerosis: An International Registry Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The severity of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding the determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, UV B radiation (UVB) exposure, and the severity of MS. METHODS: This observational study used the MSBase registry data. The included patients met the 2005 or 2010 McDonald diagnostic criteria for MS and had a minimum dataset recorded in the registry (date of birth, sex, clinic location, date of MS symptom onset, disease phenotype at baseline and censoring, and ≥1 Expanded Disability Status Scale score recorded). The latitude of each study center and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 years and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Disease severity was quantified with Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS). Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB, and MSSS. RESULTS: The 46,128 patients who contributed 453,208 visits and a cumulative follow-up of 351,196 patient-years (70% women, mean age 39.2 ± 12 years, resident between latitudes 19°35' and 56°16') were included in this study. Latitude showed a nonlinear association with MS severity. In latitudes <40°, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (ß = 0.08, 95% CI 0.04-0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40° (ß = -0.02, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 years (ß = - 0.5, 95% CI -0.6 to 0.4) and 18 years (ß = - 0.6, 95% CI -0.7 to 0.4), as well as with lower lifetime UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (ß = -1.0, 95% CI -1.1 to 0.9). DISCUSSION: In temperate zones, MS severity is associated with latitude. This association is mainly, but not exclusively, driven by UVB exposure contributing to both MS susceptibility and severity.

Assessing Blood-Based Biomarkers to Define a Therapeutic Window for Natalizumab.

Natalizumab is a monoclonal antibody that binds CD49d. Although it is one of the most effective treatments for Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS), a dosing regimen has not been optimized for safety and efficacy in individual patients. We aimed to identify biomarkers to monitor Natalizumab treatment and to establish a personalized dose utilizing an ongoing longitudinal study in 29 RRMS patients under Natalizumab with standard interval dose (SD) of 300 mg/4wks or extended interval dose (EID) of 300 mg/6wks. Blood samples were analyzed by flow cytometry to determine CD49d saturation and expression in several T and B lymphocytes subpopulations. Each patient was analyzed at two different timepoints separated by 3 Natalizumab administrations. Natalizumab and sVCAM-1 levels in serum were also analyzed using ELISA. To determine the reproducibility of various markers, two different timepoints were compared and no significant differences were observed for CD49d expression nor for saturation; SD patients had higher saturation levels (~80%) than EID patients (~60%). A positive correlation exists between CD49d saturation and Natalizumab serum levels. CD49d expression and saturation are stable parameters that could be used as biomarkers in the immunomonitoring of Natalizumab treatment. Moreover, Natalizumab and sVCAM-1 serum levels could be used to optimize an individual's dosing schedule.

Combined Therapy of Vitamin D3-Tolerogenic Dendritic Cells and Interferon-ß in a Preclinical Model of Multiple Sclerosis.

Autologous antigen-specific therapies based on tolerogenic dendritic cells (tolDC) offer the possibility to treat autoimmune diseases by restoring homeostasis and targeting specifically autoreactive responses. Here, we explore the hypothesis that systemic inflammation occurring in autoimmune diseases, such as multiple sclerosis (MS), can generate a disease-specific environment able to alter the functionality of tolDC. In this context in fact, a combined therapy of tolDC with an immunomodulatory treatment could potentiate the beneficial effect of this antigen-specific cell therapy. For this purpose, we analyzed the efficacy of a combined therapy based on the use of vitamin D3 (VitD3)-tolDC plus interferon beta (IFN-beta) in MS. VitD3-tolDC were generated from healthy donors and MS patients and co-cultured with allogeneic peripheral blood mononuclear cells, in the presence or absence of IFN-beta. In vitro, VitD3-tolDC treatment reduced the percentage of activated T cells and allogeneic proliferation, whereas VitD3-tolDC+IFN-beta treatment enhanced the suppressive ability of VitD3-tolDC and, additionally, induced a shift towards a Th2 profile. To determine the clinical benefit of the combined therapy, C57BL/6-experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE)-induced mice were treated with antigen-specific VitD3-tolDC and/or IFN-beta. Treatment of EAE mice with combined therapy ameliorated the disease course compared to each monotherapy. These results suggest that a combined therapy based on antigen-specific VitD3-tolDC and IFN-beta may represent a promising strategy for MS patients.

Safety, tolerability, and activity of mesenchymal stem cells versus placebo in multiple sclerosis (MESEMS): a phase 2, randomised, double-blind crossover trial.

BACKGROUND: Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), also known as mesenchymal stromal cells, have been proposed as a promising therapeutic option for people with multiple sclerosis on the basis of their immunomodulatory and neuroprotective properties. The MEsenchymal StEm cells for Multiple Sclerosis (MESEMS) study was devised to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and activity of autologous MSCs derived from bone marrow and infused intravenously in patients with active multiple sclerosis. METHODS: MESEMS is a randomised phase 2 trial done at 15 sites in nine countries. Patients (aged 18-50 years) with active relapsing-remitting or progressive multiple sclerosis were included if they had a disease duration of 2-15 years since onset of multiple sclerosis and an Expanded Disability Status Scale score of 2·5-6·5. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1), according to a crossover design, to receive a single intravenous dose of autologous bone marrow-derived MSCs followed by placebo at week 24, or to receive placebo followed by autologous MSCs at week 24, with a follow-up visit at week 48. Primary objectives were to test safety and activity of MSC treatment. The primary safety endpoint was to assess the number and severity of adverse events within each treatment arm. The primary efficacy endpoint was the number of gadolinium-enhancing lesions (GELs) counted over week 4, 12, and 24 compared between treatment groups. The primary efficacy endpoint was assessed in the full analyis set, after all participants completed the week 24 visit. Efficacy endpoints were evaluated using a predefined statistical testing procedure. Safety was monitored throughout the study by recording vital signs and adverse events at each visit. FINDINGS: From July 16, 2012, until July 31, 2019, 144 patients were randomly assigned to first receive early intravenous infusion of autologous bone marrow-derived MSCs (n=69) or placebo (n=75). MSC treatment did not meet the primary endpoint of efficacy on the total number of GELs accumulated from baseline to week 24 (rate ratio [RR] 0·94, 95% CI 0·58-1·50; p=0·78). 213 adverse events were recorded, similarly distributed between groups (93 cases recorded in 35 [51%] of 69 patients treated first with MSCs vs 120 cases in 42 [56%] of 75 patients infused first with placebo). The most frequent adverse events reported were infection and infestations, with a total of 54 (25%) of 213 adverse events (18 [19%] of 93 in the early-MSC group and 36 [30%] of 120 in the delayed-MSC group). Nine serious adverse events were reported in seven patients treated with placebo versus none in the MSC group. All serious adverse events were considered to be unrelated to the treatment infusion. No deaths were reported during the study. INTERPRETATION: Bone marrow-derived MSC treatment was safe and well tolerated but did not show an effect on GELs, an MRI surrogate marker of acute inflammation, in patients with active forms of multiple sclerosis, at week 24. Thus, this study does not support the use of bone marrow-derived MSCs to treat active multiple sclerosis. Further studies should address the effect of MSCs on parameters related to tissue repair. FUNDING: Fondazione Italiana Sclerosi Multipla (FISM), the European Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis (ECTRIMS), and the Multiple Sclerosis International Federation (MSIF) for centralised activities. Individual trials participating in the MESEMS network are funded by the following agencies: FISM and Compagnia di San Paolo (Italy); The Danish Multiple Sclerosis Society, The Toyota Foundation, and Danish Blood Donors' Research Foundation (Denmark); the Spanish Health Research Institute Carlos 3 and the Andalusian Public Foundation Progreso y Salud (Spain); the Royan Institute for Stem Cell Biology and Technology (Iran); the Spinal Cord Injury and Tissue Regeneration Centre Salzburg, Paracelsus Medical University, and Salzburg (Austria); the Fondation pour l'aide à la recherche sur la sclérose en plaques (ARSEP), French Muscular Dystrophy Association (AFM)-Telethon (France); the UK Multiple Sclerosis Society and the UK Stem Cell Foundation (UK); and the Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada and The Multiple Sclerosis Scientific Research Foundation and Research Manitoba (Canada).

Longitudinal machine learning modeling of MS patient trajectories improves predictions of disability progression.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem. METHODS: We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used. RESULTS: We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS.

Recommendations for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Multiple Sclerosis Relapses.

Minimizing the risk of relapse is essential in multiple sclerosis (MS). As none of the treatments currently available are capable of completely preventing relapses, treatment of these episodes remains a cornerstone of MS care. The objective of this manuscript is to reduce uncertainty and improve quality of care of this neurological process. This article addresses definitions of key concepts, recommendations for clinical examination, classification criteria, magnetic resonance imaging, biomarkers, and specific therapeutic counsels including special populations such as pregnant and breastfeeding women, and children. An algorithm for treating MS relapses is also provided.

Treatment Response Score to Glatiramer Acetate or Interferon Beta-1a.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of glatiramer acetate (GA) vs intramuscular interferon beta-1a (IFN-ß-1a), we applied a previously published statistical method aimed at identifying patients' profiles associated with efficacy of treatments. METHODS: Data from 2 independent multiple sclerosis datasets, a randomized study (the Combination Therapy in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis [CombiRx] trial, evaluating GA vs IFN-ß-1a) and an observational cohort extracted from MSBase, were used to build and validate a treatment response score, regressing annualized relapse rates (ARRs) on a set of baseline predictors. RESULTS: The overall ARR ratio of GA to IFN-ß-1a in the CombiRx trial was 0.72. The response score (made up of a linear combination of age, sex, relapses in the previous year, disease duration, and Expanded Disability Status Scale score) detected differential response of GA vs IFN-ß-1a: in the trial, patients with the largest benefit from GA vs IFN-ß-1a (lower score quartile) had an ARR ratio of 0.40 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25-0.63), those in the 2 middle quartiles of 0.90 (95% CI 0.61-1.34), and those in the upper quartile of 1.14 (95% CI 0.59-2.18) (heterogeneity p = 0.012); this result was validated on MSBase, with the corresponding ARR ratios of 0.58 (95% CI 0.46-0.72), 0.92 (95% CI 0.77-1.09,) and 1.29 (95% CI 0.97-1.71); heterogeneity p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate the possibility of a criterion, based on patients' characteristics, to choose whether to treat with GA or IFN-ß-1a. This result, replicated on an independent real-life cohort, may have implications for clinical decisions in everyday clinical practice.